2\u00a0 74% 23%\u00a0 0mph WSW bar29.84 windchill2\u00a0 Winter<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Waxing Gibbous Winter Moon<\/p>\n
This is not my area of expertise, but the economy is something none of us can afford to ignore.\u00a0 A recession for some of us is a depression for others.\u00a0 While poking around on the net about just what constitutes a recession, I happened onto the following information.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The folks who make the official decision about whether or not we are in a recession work at the National Bureau for Economic Research<\/a>.\u00a0 They gather in an aptly named Business Cycle Dating Committee.\u00a0 Here are the criteria they use:<\/p>\n “The National Bureau’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U.S. business cycle. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recession or expansion. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough to a peak is an expansion. According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in March 2001, ending a record-long expansion that began in 1991. The most recent trough occurred in November 2001, inaugurating an expansion.<\/p>\n A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.”<\/p>\n The most interesting part to me is that they never “call” a recession until the data is available.\u00a0 In a Q & A on their website is this entry:<\/p>\n Q: Typically, how long after the beginning of a recession does the BCDC declare that a recession has started?<\/strong><\/p>\n A: Anywhere from 6 to 18 months. We never consider forecasts. In general, the BCDC does not meet until it is reasonably clear that a downturn has occurred.<\/p>\n This means\u00a0we probably won’t know for sure we’ve been in a recession until we’re just about out of it since recessions tend to be brief.\u00a0 According to the Business Cycle Dating Committee.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 2\u00a0 74% 23%\u00a0 0mph WSW bar29.84 windchill2\u00a0 Winter \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Waxing Gibbous Winter Moon This is not my area of expertise, but the economy is something none of us can afford to ignore.\u00a0 A recession for some of us is a depression for others.\u00a0 While poking around on the net about just what constitutes a recession, … Continue reading A Recession? We’ll Know When It’s Over.<\/span>