“I know nothing grander, better exercise, better digestion, more positive proof of the past, the triumphant result of faith in human kind, than a well-contested American national election.” – Walt Whitman
Predictions:
Obama wins 51.6% of the popular vote and at least 320 electoral votes.
Franken squeaks by Coleman.
Bachmann Tinklenberg — too close to call.
Madia Paulsen — too close to call.
Dems do not make it to 60 in the Senate.
If I have to give a reasoned opinion, I don’t have it at this time of night. These are not hopes, though, but based on reading and poll watching over the last two months. Which means, of course, that I could be completely wrong.
Here is a cogent analysis. You can read more by clicking on the link or going to Pollster.com.
November 3, 2008
One Day to Go and McCain Is Between Barack and a Hard Place
By Steve Lombardo
Tomorrow, Barack Obama will become the first Democratic Presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an outright majority of the votes cast on Election Day — and with it a sizeable majority of electoral votes — making him the next President of the United States.
We make this projection knowing that the gap is closing both nationally and in key states; it is our sense, however, that this trend would have to continue for another 10 days for the election to swing back to McCain.
The following is our rationale for going with Obama:
* The economic recession/financial meltdown dominated the headlines from mid-September to mid-October. The war in Iraq remains enormously unpopular. Bush’s approval ratings are near an all-time low for modern Presidents. And the GOP brand is weak and fractured. As a result of these factors, a majority of this hugely dissatisfied electorate will be voting Democratic to change the direction of the last eight years.
* October was the worst month for the stock market in 21 years. Yes, last week was an improvement, but the month of October was unkind to John McCain and the GOP. Last Thursday, the government reported that the economy contracted from July through September – the first time consumer spending had decreased in 17 years.
* With this environment as a backdrop, Obama will pick the GOP lock on the electoral college by winning six states George W. Bush won in 2004–Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia–en route to an electoral vote rout.
* This election was always about Obama and McCain was never able to paint him as either “unfit” or “unprepared.” Nor was McCain able to give people a clear reason to vote for him.
* In an ironic twist, it was Obama who defined McCain in a negative light rather than the other way around. They started by claiming that he was “confused” four months ago and then painting him as “erratic” in the last 60 days. Of course, team McCain and the candidate himself contributed to this. It will be interesting to count the gross rating points that went behind contrast ads on both sides. My guess is that the Obama campaign might win that count as well.
* Terrorism and national security virtually disappeared as election issues. These two issues dominated a large part of the national dialogue in 2004 and helped give Bush his re-election victory.
* New registrants, young voters and black voters are going to break with historical pattern and vote in disproportionately high numbers, giving Obama huge margins in certain states and propelling him to victory over an exhausted and disengaged GOP base.
* The Democratic ground game will prove to be vastly superior to the Republican operation (money can do that).
* The turnout will be between 58%-60%, which would be its highest level since 1960. If the total number of voters exceeds 130 million (meaning more than 61% of eligible voters will have voted) then the Obama win could be an electoral landslide because the Democrats have a built-in six-eight point advantage in terms of party identification.
