AncienTrails

Beltane and the Corona Lunacy II

Tuesday gratefuls: Kate. Just because. Rain yesterday. Hoping for more to drive that wildfire danger back down to low. Mark and Elizabeth are ok. Progress on loft reorganization. New workout (old one being recycled). A wet, not so hot week ahead. Lupron. Driving me down while helping me heal. Singapore. Riyadh. San Francisco. Aurora. Context for loved ones.

Tired this morning. Walked up the stairs to the loft thinking, god, I hope this is Lupron. If next month is the last month of Lupron, maybe my strength and energy will return. Hope so. Feel like an old man.

Feeling the pressure to resume “normal” life. Just go to the store. Get gas. Hike. Shake hands. Hug the grandkids. Pick up the restaurant meals with Jon. Go out to eat.

Interesting article about how pandemics end. Messy. Is the answer. A medical end happens when the smallpox gets wiped out in the human population, but that’s very rare. There’s a societal end when folks give in to the pressure, start going out again in spite of the risk. Trouble with the societal end? It risks more flareups, new peaks.

We’re not close to even the societal end of the Covid pandemic. Many folks want to maintain stay at home, don’t want to go back to crowded offices, have customers breathe in their faces. In spite of the pressure I feel I’m in that camp.

Got into an unnecessary and stupid Facebook argument. Thought I’d learned. Apparently not. Bad modeling was at issue. They’ve been wrong. All of them. Since the beginning. All this economy shattering social shuttering was too much response for the reality of Covid.

Predicted response. Sure the initial models proved wrong. Models are only as good as the data that feed them and the algorithms that control them. Early on in a pandemic the data is bad. Noisy. Inaccurate. But it’s the data available. As a pandemic goes on, the data should become better, but with the inadequacy, the gross inadequacy of testing and contact tracing, it’s impossible to get good data. Even now. The modelers try to correct, but it’s assumptions, not facts on the ground.

After several, “are you stupid?” replies, I did not respond to any of them though I really, really wanted to, I went back to the thread and wrote, I apologize for throwing this steak on the table. Trolls gonna troll. Especially when professional trolls are feeding them their lines.